Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
