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Beijing has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.